Magnus Carlsen's openings
Chess.com· GM· Rank 2· 🇳🇴·
Magnus Carlsen's most played openings in 300 recent Chess.com blitz games: English Opening as White (23 games, 91% score); Sicilian Defense as Black (46 games, 72% score).
You vs Magnus Carlsen: which openings to play
Key findings
As White
Where Magnus Carlsen scores best
As Black
Where Magnus Carlsen scores below ratings
Where Magnus Carlsen scores best
Games
300
Blitz
Score
80%
win = 1, draw = ½
As White
150
84% score
As Black
150
76% score
Rating
3413
Blitz
As White
Score counts a win as 1 and a draw as ½.
As Black
Score counts a win as 1 and a draw as ½.
Magnus Carlsen’s style · Blitz · 149 games as White
Opening
- Out of book by move 338%
57 of 149 games
- Fianchetto19%
29 of 149 games
Centre after move 12
- Open centre(0–1 centre pawns)46%
69 of 149 games
- Semi-open centre(2 centre pawns)42%
63 of 149 games
- Closed centre(3–4 centre pawns)11%
17 of 149 games
- Isolated queen’s pawn5%
8 of 149 games
Middlegame and clock
- Opposite-side castling12%
15 of 121 games where both kings castled
- Queens off by move 2016%
23 of 142 games
- Time trouble17%
26 of 149 games with move times
Endgame
- Ahead on material in the endgame18%
19 of 108 games that reached an endgame
- Behind on material in the endgame10%
11 of 108 games that reached an endgame
How we measure this
From the latest games of this time control (up to 150 per colour), counted directly from the moves and clocks, with no engine. Each bar is the share of games where the situation happened. A share on its own is neither good nor bad. A tag appears only when the result is clear at 90% confidence: the score is above or below what the ratings predict (for the endgame rows, the ratings and the material).
- Out of book by move 3
- Games where the position stops matching any named opening (the ECO list) within each side’s first three moves, by either player’s move. Counted over all games.
- Fianchetto
- Games where, after move 10, the player has a bishop on g2 or b2 (g7 or b7 as Black) with the pawn in front of it on g3 or b3 (g6 or b6). Counted over games that lasted 10 moves.
- Open centre
- Games with at most one pawn, of either colour, on d4, d5, e4 and e5 after move 12. Counted over games that lasted 12 moves.
- Semi-open centre
- Games with two pawns, of either colour, on d4, d5, e4 and e5 after move 12. Counted over games that lasted 12 moves.
- Closed centre
- Games with three or four pawns, of either colour, on d4, d5, e4 and e5 after move 12. Counted over games that lasted 12 moves.
- Isolated queen’s pawn
- Games where, after move 12, the player has exactly one pawn on the d-file and none on the c- or e-file. It can happen with any of the centres. Counted over games that lasted 12 moves.
- Opposite-side castling
- Games where both kings castled, to different sides — often a race of pawn storms. Counted over games where both kings castled.
- Queens off by move 20
- Games where both queens were off the board by move 20. Counted over games that lasted 20 moves or had the queens off sooner.
- Time trouble
- Games where, after move 10, the player’s clock fell under 10% of the starting time with at least five of their moves still to play. Counted over games that have move times.
- Ahead on material in the endgame
- Games that reached an endgame with the player at least two points up (two pawns, the exchange or more; pawn 1, minor piece 3, rook 5, queen 9), counted when six or fewer queens, rooks, bishops and knights are left in total. The tag compares the result with what the ratings and the material predict.
- Behind on material in the endgame
- Games that reached an endgame with the player at least two points down (two pawns, the exchange or more; pawn 1, minor piece 3, rook 5, queen 9), counted when six or fewer queens, rooks, bishops and knights are left in total. The tag compares the result with what the ratings and the material predict.
How these numbers work
- Score: a win counts 1 and a draw ½, divided by the games played in that opening.
- Expected score (“ratings predict”): what the Elo formula predicts from both players' ratings in those games. A score more than 5 percentage points above it is green, more than 5 below is red, anything in between is on par.
- Performance (Perf): the average opponent rating + 800 × (score − 50%), a simple linear estimate; the average opponent is shown beside it.
- Sample size: key findings use openings with 5 or more games. How much to trust this score: fewer than 10 games is a small sample and only a hint, 10 to 29 is a medium sample, 30 or more is a solid sample.
- Games: finished Chess.com games, up to 150 as White and 150 as Black, grouped by opening and time control.
Data: Chess.com public API. Magnus Carlsen on Chess.com
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